Svenske professor Kjell Aleklett, medstifter av ASPO og sjef for Global Energy Systems ved Universitetet i Uppsala, ligger ikke på latsiden. Det kommer en jevn strøm av nøkterne, overbevisende og skremmende artikler og rapporter fra GES for tiden...
Det er ikke ofte jeg ser nettvideo, men dette timelange foredraget av Aleklett så jeg. Anbefales både for nye og gamle PO'ere. Av spesiell interesse for oss norrbaggar er det han sier om norsk gass etter ca 52 min. Han nevner en ikke publisert artikkel; det må vel være denne: European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production... Fra abstract'et:
This article shows that only a 20-25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94-78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124-135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96-115 bcm/year, which is considerably lower than the 127 bcm/year forecasted by the IEA. Not even in the highest production scenario does Norwegian gas production reach the potential production level of 140 bcm/year presented by the NPD. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios.
Jeg har bladd igjennom rapporten (men ikke studert den nøye) og... fallet er bratt når det først setter inn.
Jeg tror ikke det blir morsomt å være gammel i Norge i 2050.
Men nå skal jeg på fest ;-/
Innlegg
