... sier Pimco-sjefen El-Erian, som føyer seg inn i rekken av observatører som påpeker at dette, iaf for USA sin del, er like mye en politisk sykdom som en økonomisk en:
I am not a political expert but I respect and listen to the insights of many who are. Their messages are eerily consistent, and quite concerning.
The political atmosphere in Washington is tense and increasingly polarized. Bipartisan backing for measures is harder. With the political center shrinking, the ability to “manage to the middle” is growing more elusive while the more partisan wings don’t command sufficient broad-based support.
The situation isn’t helped by the diminished trust in key institutions, both public and private
[...]
These are consequential political and economic questions. They speak to a more protracted post-crisis resetting of the U.S. economy -- what Pimco labeled last year as a bumpy multiyear journey to a new normal.
All this is consistent with the academic literature on post-crisis periods. Such research reminds us of the extent to which massive disruptions -- such as the one experienced in 2007-09 -- expose structural cracks that, at best, can only be masked temporarily by a massive cyclical policy response.
Resetting the U.S.
To make things even more complex, the resetting of the U.S. is occurring in the context of secular shifts in global growth and wealth dynamics -- principally on account of some systemically important emerging economies (such as Brazil, China and India) having reached development breakout stages.
The evidence is overwhelming: Economic and political indicators are urging us to adopt a forward-looking structural mindset. Yet too many markets -- and, I would also argue, too many private and public institutions -- seem hostage to cyclical forces.
Bull Market Can’t Last If You Mind the Gap: Mohamed A. El-Erian (El-Erian / Bloomberg News; gjengitt på ZH; mine uthevinger)
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