torsdag 23. juli 2009

Peak Oil for nybegynnere


To enkle, men velargumenterte artikler på The Oil Drum fra nær fortid:

Peak Oil Overview - July 2009 av Gail the Actuary:

Most people who have read a little about peak oil have heard that US oil production peaked in 1970. This happened, even though oil companies have been working as hard as they can to keep production up. Oil companies have even applied enhanced oil recovery techniques to wells where it looked like doing so would be profitable. After the US mainland (48 states) peaked in 1970, extra effort was expended to ramp up Alaskan production. It soon peaked as well, in 1988.

Figure 1 - US Oil Production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.


The question now is with respect to world production. The price of oil isn't very high--is there any possibility of a near-term peak in world oil production? Lower prices would seem to suggest there is no problem.

It seems to me that if we look closely at the situation, world oil production has likely peaked, even though prices are not behaving as most had expected. Furthermore, the peaking of world oil production seems to be a major cause of the current financial crisis. The tie of peak oil to recent demand destruction points to a possible continuing destruction in demand in the years ahead, with oil prices fluctuating, but not necessarily rising to great heights.


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Is Peak Oil Real? A List of Countries Past Peak av Praveen Ghanta:

Only 14 of the 54 oil producing nations in the world are still increasing their oil production. The era of cheap oil is definitively over, as shown below.


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Prayer To the Invisible Hand

Invisible Hand, Most Gracious and Giving Hand, I pray to you that you abundantly bless us with alternative energy. I know that you recognize, our need for a substitute to our daily supply of oil. Oh,Invisible Hand, I send up to you a prayer request for an energy blessing.

Invisible Hand I know that for you nothing is impossible, you just will it and it will happen. I thank you in advance for your magic. Release your alternative forms of energy that I may be a good steward over all that you have called on me to be in my energy Blessings with high EROEI.

Invisible Hand, for I know how wonderful and mighty you are and how if we just believe in you and and your magic powers and have the faith of a jathropha seed that you will pour out energy. I thank you now Oh, Invisible Hand! for the recent free energy I have received and for more free energy yet to come because I know you are not done with us yet.

In BAU's Name, I pray,

Amen.
Signert FMagyar)