Interessant, men kunne for min del gått litt dypere inn i materien... whatever, det gjøres i kommentarene. Memmel is on a roll:
Ingeniører og Murphys lov:
It turns out that the complex systems least likely to fail are those still managed by gloom and doomers and least dependent on a high maintenance grid. [...] In fact I'd argue only doomers can successfully build complex reliable robust systems. Anti-doomers will always eventually face catastrophic failure because they refuse to focus on it yet failure modes esp the catastrophic ones are the defining signature of complex systems.
Hva som går og hva som blir:
Now they may become expensive and its highly probably if we continue to require diesel engines that the designs will be adjusted to allow less complex manufacturing processes. The original diesels where built in home workshops.
[...]
Road networks fail, Electrical networks fail, city societies fail but as long as knowledge exists and the equipment can be put together the ability to make stuff lasts for a very long time. Far more likely is diesel engines will eventually be abandoned in favor of easier to make and run steam engines. Not that we won't continue to make them but external combustion engines have a lot of advantages over internal combustion engines if society relocalizes.
Memmel kommenterer også på IEA Economist Warns about World Oil Supply:
In fact one of the reasons I expect oil prices to go much higher then most people believe possible is simply because the system despite its flaws is resilient to a rapid collapse.
Highly inflated property values actually play a big role in this in a sort of paradox.
Property values can fall substantially freeing up cash flow for daily living and purchasing oil at ever higher prices for some time before we actually reach the point that the system is structurally collapsing. The same problem that prevents me from readily doing what I'd like to do post peak also works to ensure that collapse will be slowed down at first.
As a renter I've already taken advantage of this securing a much lower rent for a nicer place using just the current fall in housing prices. In my opinion there is plenty of room for prices to continue to fall.
Han estimerer at dette kan pågå i en to-tre, kanskje så mye som fem år. Først da er vi ved punktet hvor ytterligere prisstigning vil kunne gi kollaps... (argh, finner ikke den referansen. Jeg må bli flinkere til å poste linker & utdrag her)
Dette er vel langt på vei forklaringen på holdningen til The Automatic Earth (som er svært PO-bevisste) - Ilargi på TAE 4.de aug:
Look, I still appreciate a few people at TOD, got together with Nate not so long ago, but the oil-centred thing is just not where's it's at right now. Oil won’t drive financial events. They drive themselves at the moment and will continue to do so through the years to come. No matter what the price of oil may be, no matter how much money governments spend to cover up losses already incurred, the dice have left the hand and are rolling cross the table. Rien ne va plus.
Stoneleigh in her "40 ways" says oil wil become unaffordable within 5 years, and that may well be too long a timeframe. What we're trying to say here is that soon it won't make any difference if oil is $4, $400 or 40 cents per gallon, because people won't have either sort of discretionary cash, except perhaps for emergencies. And when I say that oil will return as a major story, but in a different sense, in 10-20 years, maybe that is too long as well.
Oil will become a story not of convenience or riding on the highway or freedom or world travel or even simply running machinery, it will become the number one story of power. Modern armies run on oil, and who gets caught without it will be largely defenseless. I say largely because of the joker in the deck that is asymmetrical warfare. And somewhere in there is an as yet undefined role for nuclear weapons, which may rewrite the whole script in a matter of minutes or hours.
For now, though, going into this fall and 2010-11, the one tale that matters far more than anything else for "ordinary people" is that of unwinding and disappearing credit and accumulated debt. The cost of oil is but a bit player on that stage.
Innlegg
