Debtwatch

Oppdaget en ny blogg i går: Steve Keen's Debtwatch.

Steve Keen er en australsk akademisk økonom, som er kritisk til det meste (akkurat som meg!), både den neoklassiske(mainstream) og østerrikske skolen.

Denne talen (transkribert) oppsummerer vel ideene hans, om økonomisk teori, hvor vi er hen i dag, og hvor vi er på vei. Om de to siste sier han:

Putting 290% of GDP in context, in terms of debt levels, that is 60% higher than the peak debt reached during the Great Depression in America and about 120% higher than it reached when the Depression began. The reason the ratio was that high during the Great Depression was because the level of debt caused a period of deflation. And that deflation and collapsing output meant that even though Americans reduced their nominal debt levels from 1929 to 1932, their indebtedness relative to their income rose from about 175% of GDP to 235% of GDP. Now, we’re starting this crisis at 290% of GDP.

In that sense I’m saying that debt is the actual cause of the disease and and the cause in the American case is pretty close to 1.5 to 2 times as bad as the Great Depression. So, I think it’s going to be… we’ll be lucky to come out of things as well as the Great Depression. We’ll certainly come out worse than 1990. People who believe we’re going to stop at less than double digit rates of unemployment are, I think, deluding themselves. And that’s unfortunately what economists normally do.

We also have deflation hitting us. In 1930-1931 the rate of falling prices in American was roughly 10% per annum. The maximum rate of fall of prices in any particular month occurred in 1932 or 1933 and it was about 2%. The second largest rate of fall in consumer prices in recorded history was in November of last year. Already. So there’s all sorts of signals that this could be a worse crisis than the Great Depression.

Now, how much confidence do I have in policy makers today to get us out of it? None. There are several reasons for that. First of all, the people in charge at the moment did not see this coming. Again, Bernie [Fraser - forrige taler] was talking about how economists were thinking about how they’d abolished the trade cycle.

They actually had a whole debate going in American, particularly American journals, but also English ones, called the Great Moderation. And their description, up to and including the beginning of 2007 of what was happening in the macro economy was a reduction in the volatility in the trade cycle: more consistent growth, less bouts of inflation, more stability. And one of those many foolish economic commentators in the newspapers, for the London Times, had a piece published in the beginning of 2007 called the “Great Moderation” which began with the line, “History will marvel at the stability of our era.” I don’t think he was being ironic. He actually believed it.

Dessverre planlegger han å tone ned bloggingen for å skrive bok...



Blant mye annet snacks, lister over eksepsjonelt gode artikler (av andre enn ham selv) under Highlights.

Et av dem er dette fantastiske stykket Gonzo fra Jeremy Clarkson (kjent fra BBC-bilprogrammet Top Gear): Vauxhall Insignia 2.8 V6: An adequate way to drive to hell.

Ubetalelig.