Energisubsidie

Jeg skrev i Påskekrim at "A new energy subsidy will at some point be essential... Verdensøkonomiens tilstand kan tyde på at "some point" er sånn ca. nå."

Den sammenhengen - at økonomien kommer seg dersom vi får et energisubsidie - er ikke helt opplagt (selv om jeg mener den er reell). Er ikke energietterspørselen kraftig ned som følge av den økonomiske krisen, kanskje?

Rune Likvern omtaler i Has OECD oil consumption peaked? på TOD i går effekten av oljeprisen på økonomien slik:

Recessions tend to follow increases in oil prices-for example price spikes lead to recessions in 1973/1974, 1979/1980, and 1990/1991, as indicated on this graph by Jeff Rubin when he was Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. Even if this economic downturn is somewhat different from previous ones, it seems like strong growth in oil prices in 2008 is instrumental in slowing down OECD economies. In the early 1980s, some substitution took place, mainly replacing oil consumption with nuclear and natural gas consumption. This time there is no meaningful scalable substitute for oil, putting the OECD countries in a much worse position than they were when oil prices spiked earlier.

It looks increasingly like the OECD economies are falling victim to what I have started to refer to as the “Oil Price Trap”. The oil price (at today’s US$50/Bbl) is presently too high to add valuable pulling strength to slow down the economic downturn and bring the OECD economies back into growth. At the same time, the present oil price is too low to stimulate sufficient investment in future capacity growth to bring about much needed renewed economic growth.

Jeg tror Likvern er inne på noe viktig og riktig med oljeprisfellen sin...