Dette er det beste jeg har lest om Peak Oil og tilhørende herligheter til nå:
Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation
(transkript av et foredrag, med bilder av de tilhørende slidene)
Orlov får det til å høres nesten morsomt ut, i tillegg til uunngåelig. Langt, men et absolutt must-read.
Link til et annet must-read i kommentarene:
The Cassandra of Toledo: A Requiem For Mitigation
"Michael, it's too late."
-- professor Craig Bond Hatfield
Som om ikke det var nok:
I The Slope of Dysfunction "kritiserer" Orlov Peak Oil-teorien...
Han begynner sånn:
Perhaps you have heard of the Peak Oil theory? Most people have by now, even the people whose job used to involve denying the possibility that global crude oil production would peak any time soon. Now that everybody seems a bit more comfortable with the idea, perhaps it is time to reexamine it. Is the scenario Peak Oil theoreticians paint indeed realistic, or is it firmly grounded in wishful thinking?
Dette virker jo som en hvilken som helst avisartikkel om PO, som begynner med å være bekymret og fornuftig - og så avskriver hele greia som tøys. Han følger dette mønsteret slavisk, helt ned til: "But they seem to have overlooked one little detail, which, I believe, is rather important".
Den lille detaljen er, hva gjør en nasjon som ikke klarer å produsere nok olje til seg selv (lenger)? Jo, den importerer.
Øøøø og hva skjer dersom det ikke er mulig å importere?
It just so happens that we have a convenient example of just such a scenario unfolding: post-Soviet oil production after the collapse of the USSR. There, production declined 43% between 1987 and 1996. The decline was arrested and reversed by the introduction of foreign investment and technology[.]
[...]
[T]he crash in oil production preceded collapse in USSR's Gross Domestic Product. The lag time between the two, and the severity of the collapse are clear enough to ascribe causality: to say that the oil crash caused the economic collapse. On the other hand, coal and natural gas production, which also crashed, did so after the GDP collapsed, again, with a significant enough lag time to say with confidence that it was economic collapse that caused coal and gas production to crash.
What actually happens to an economy and a society under such circumstances? With oil in short supply, industrial production plummets, the economy stalls, there is a financial crisis because of debts going bad, followed by a commercial crisis because of falling demand and lack of credit, followed by political collapse caused by dwindling government revenues, followed by social collapse as unemployment rises and crime becomes rampant. After a while of this, the idea of you and your friends going out to the oil field and pumping some more oil starts to seem rather odd, and so oil production heads to zero.
Jepp, sånn er det med den saken.
Men vi i Norge er jo heldigvis selvforsynt med olje og velsådet?
But modern oil production is a technically complicated business (the easy-to-get-at oil is all gone) while the field service equipment and parts delivery system is fully globalized and exceedingly complex. Shocks to any part of the global economy are very likely to disrupt the whole before too long.
Hvorfor har jeg dette merkelige suget i magen, tro?
Innlegg
